Another Update Re:"H1N1 'super flu' plague in Ukraine spark concern, conspiracy theories about origins"

Another facet has now entered into the discussion over what is happening in the Ukraine that basically poses the question, with the WHO claiming there is little evidence to support the feared worsening of disease there, that perhaps the whole thing might be being blown out of proportion for political reasons. Apparently, the president's hold on his office is becoming shaky, and so the postponing of election, talk of martial law, etc. could be all about trying to hang on until he can change public perception sufficiently to get himself reelected; the 'hero who bravely led us during harsh times' and all that.

My problem with that explanation is that no amount of political juxtapositioning accounts for fatalities whose lungs, at autopsy, were found to be so black that they appeared burnt and were described as looking more like a liver than lungs. This was a quote from a doctor in Ukraine. And then there is the fact that it took weeks to finally get the sequences from Ukraine samples released to the public, only to have them say very little.
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RBD Change D225G in Ukraine Lungs Raises Concerns: "Recombinomics Commentary 21:53
November 18, 2009

... All H and N sequences are typical for H1N1, as indicated in early WHO announcements. There are no large changes. Additional gene segments have been deposited from a subset of these isolates... There are silent changes that are in all or most Ukraine sequences, but the only HA polymorphism was the receptor binding domain change, D225G. This polymorphism was in the three lungs, as well as the one throat sample. It was not in the nasopharyngeal washes or the isolate grown in MDCK cells suggesting the D225G may have a tissue tropism component and may allow for high levels of virus in the lung.

D225G was also found in necropsy lung tissue from fatal cases in Sao Paulo, further supporting tissue tropism associated with this polymorphism. The polymorphism has recently appeared on a series of different genetic backgrounds, supporting acquisition by recombination. The genetic backgrounds were geographically diverse... In addition, it was in isolates from last spring collected in the United States and Mexico.

The appearance of D225G on multiple recent genetic backgrounds raises concerns that the polymorphism is offering a selective advantage in association with multiple genetic backgrounds, and the selective detection of the polymorphism in lung and throat samples may indicate it is more widespread because of its absence from nasopharyngeal washes. Lung and throat sampling may be required for detection and determination of the true geographical reach of this change..

More information on outcomes for these patients, as well as results for lung and nasopharyngeal samples from the same patient, would be useful..."
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Then, from comments exchanged later at the Flutracker site, this is Niman explaining what is happening:

"D225G was in all 3 lung samples and the 1 throat samples. I would guess that all four were fatal (they are from the two hardest hit areas). Nasopharyngeal washes were negative, which I would guess are from patients that are alive. If those two assumptions are correct, it would mean that virus with D225G has a MUCH higher CFR than virus without D225G.

My guess is that D225G directs the virus to the lung and allows it to grow to high levels, leading to cytokine storm and death. I don't think that these patients are dying because of delayed treatment. I think they are dying because they got the virus with D225G."

Posted in: H1N1 swine flu,health concerns,pandemic